Don't be surprised if Corbin Burnes wins his second Cy Young in 2025.

Corbin Burnes is a fascinating pitcher. After his stellar 2021 with the Milwaukee Brewers, when he set the MLB record for strikeouts before allowing a walk to start a season (58) and brought home the National League Cy Young Award, the consensus has been that his top of the league dominance would fade sooner rather than later. But it has not. He comes into the ‘25 campaign ranked fourth in Cy Young odds at +1200, compared to his +800 for the AL Cy Young odds leading into the 2024 season. However, I think even with all of the pitching talent he will be battling it out with, Corbin Burnes will claim his second NL Cy Young of his MLB career. 

Burnes vs. Wheeler

Corbin Burnes has been a workhorse since his 2021 Cy Young campaign, which was also his first full season as a starter. He has made at least 28 starts since then (115 total) with a combined ERA of 2.94, tied with Zach Wheeler for third in the league since 2021 (min. 500 innings pitched). He has also thrown the second most innings since 2021, just behind Wheeler by an inning and a third over that stretch. Why would I pick him over Wheeler for this year’s Cy Young? Wheeler has been just as impressive, and I have him slated for the second-place finish, but there was a deciding factor for me. 

The Human Element

I believe, as fans, we do a really bad job by taking the human element out of the game when it comes analysis, specially failure. Corbin Burnes is not just a pitcher; he is also a husband and dad to three young children. It had not been truly spoken about until his free agency, but Burnes made it a priority to be relatively close to home, on the West Coast at the very least. Being close to family was important to him as he weighed his options. He took roughly eight trips to his home in Scottsdale, Arizona, sources report, throughout the course of last season, including to be there for the birth of his twin daughters in June. 

It could be nothing. However, before June 28th, 2024, the day his daughters were born, he boasted a 2.28 ERA in 106.2 innings, with 99 strikeouts paired with 24 walks. After that date, he had a 3.70 ERA in 87.2 innings, with 82 strikeouts paired with 24 walks. Still above average, but a definitive dropoff. I am in no way blaming his daughters for his fallout, but I am blaming the human element of homesickness. We all know traveling is exhausting in itself, but I have to imagine as a dad, especially with little ones, being away for long periods of time can be emotionally draining and would likely have been a cause for Burnes's mental headspace to not always be where it needed to be. 

Home Cooking

In 2025, Burnes will not have this issue, though. Living in Scottsdale, it is about 30 minutes to his new home ballpark in downtown Phoenix, where Chase Field is. What does this have to do with playing baseball? It means at least 50% of the season, Burnes will get to go to bed next to his wife and wake up with his kids. It sounds so simple, but it could be that simple. We could be looking at a Corbin Burnes who is mentally sound for an entire season, possibly for the first time in multiple years, which could contribute to the most dominant season of his MLB career. 

The Rest of the Field

Who else would be competing? The aforementioned Zach Wheeler is always a

threat for a Cy Young. Although he has never won one, he has maybe been the most consistent pitcher in baseball since 2021, sitting top-5 in almost every major pitching category in that time frame. I have him finishing second this season, which would be his third second-place finish since ‘21, second second-place finish in a row, and ironically, second second-place finish to Corbin Burnes. 

Paul Skenes, the running favorite, has a very good chance to bring home the award. After bursting onto the scene last season, starting the All-Star Game for the National League, and taking home the National League Rookie of the Year Award, expectations are high and fans are excited to see what a full season's worth of production from Skenes will look like. 

Logan Webb is looking to recollect himself after a disappointing 2024, and with his Giants looking to compete in the NL West, they are going to need a Cy Young-type season out of their ace. Although his 3.47 ERA is not popping off the page, his back-to-back National League innings titles are. His FIP sat at 2.95, pointing to a little bit of bad luck last season. Half a run's worth. If he continues to post innings totals as high as he has been and his ERA lands closer to his 2024 FIP, he will have his name in the hat for the ‘25 award. 

Arizona Will Burne

Corbin Burnes has been an elite pitcher since his first full season as a starter, and the narrative on his abilities may have shifted because of a struggle being away from his family. But with a new team in his own backyard, we may see a clear-headed Corbin Burnes who can come out and dominate on the mound, then go home to his family on a nightly basis.

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